How should Ibovespa and the dollar react to Lula’s victory? Consumer and retail enter the radar and state-owned enterprises enter the ‘yellow light’

experts heard by InfoMoney evaluate that the victory of the PT candidate increases the perception of risk for some investors. Sentiment is buoyed by, among other factors, the lack of indication of who the new government’s finance minister will be.

“We would need to have something more concrete about what is going to be done [em relação ao ministro da Fazenda]“, emphasizes Felipe Simões, economist and director of WIT Asset. “We have to wait to find out who will be the finance minister in a possible government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and that will be very important,” he said.

Thinking about the opening of the markets on Monday (31), we expect a negative reaction from investors.

For Flávio Conde, stock analyst at Levante Ideias de Investimentos, the markets should open this Monday (31) on the defensive, that is to say dollar going from R$5.30 to R$5.45 to R$5.50interest on futures contracts (DI Futuro) increases by approximately 0.50% to 1.00% per year on most maturities.

Regarding public companies, Condé predicts that Petrobras (PETR4) and Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) will suffer a sharp decline in the resumption of negotiations.

“[A projeção é de] 10% cuts because Lula said in the campaign that he would “Brazilianize” fuel prices and that Banco do Brasil would no longer act like a private bank, but rather more socially, charging interest rates lower than those of private banks”, he projects.

He considers that, if Lula announces former Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles as finance minister, the falls could be mitigated, since there is a positive market reading of the newly elected.

In the same vein, Fernando Siqueira, head of research at Guide Investimentos, recalls that the issue of the Lula government’s spending cap also raises additional concern in the market, but that it can also be reduced in the event of appointment of a name like Meirelles. for the post of minister.

“Meirelles’ appointment would be welcome because he created the spending cap and would be a good name to make changes to the government’s spending cap,” he said.

Beneficiary sectors

While there are apprehensions about state-owned enterprises, other sectors may benefit from Lula’s victory on Sunday, especially given what the politician has already shown in the past and during the election campaign.

Given the now-elected president’s previous administrations, Idean Alves, partner and head of the trading desk at AçãoBrasil Investimentos, says economic policy is expected to encourage the expansion of credit and consumption.

“Which would benefit the education sector, in particular Yduqs (YDUQ3) and Ânima (ANIM3)”, he illustrates. “[Se adotada a postura dos primeiros mandados] would be positive for the retail sale of durable goods, as well as for clothing and footwear,” he points out.

In this sense, Alves projects a positive scenario for companies such as Magazine Luiza (MGLU3, Via (VIIA3), Americanas (AMER3) and Multilaser (MLAs3).

The shares of educational companies such as Yduqs and Cogna (COGN3) should also rise well in light of Lula’s promise that, in his government, he would come back in force with the FIES and PROUNI programs.

Low-income-focused construction companies such as MRV (MRVE3), Direcional (DIRR3) and Tenda (TEND3) also have a positive outlook due to Lula’s recent statement that he will strengthen the government’s housing program, which would be renamed Minha Casa Minha Vida and no longer Casa Verde Amarela.

Initial volatility but no chaos

Despite the expected initial volatility, Andre Luzbel, head of equities at SVN Investimentos, suggests investors stay calm and remember that this was a highly polarized election, a fierce row that encourages the perception that Brazil will wake up in chaos. And it won’t be like that, he thinks.

According to him, economic policy at the federal level may change, but relative to the states, the pro-market pattern should continue given the characteristic of most elected governors.

“There were governors-elect who were signaling the acceleration of privatization of state-owned enterprises,” he says. He gives the example in particular of Tarcísio de Freitas, who won in São Paulo, and promised to privatize Sabesp (SBSP3), the state’s basic sanitation company.

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